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2010-02-28 BACK
A Look Back at the Economic Forecast Luncheon
This article originally appeared in the Texarkana Gazette on February 28, 2010 Dr. Ed Bashaw, Dean, Texas A&M-Texarkana, College of Business I write my column on the morning after the Texarkana Market Analysis Project's third annual Economic Forecast Luncheon. (Note: the TMAP collects economic data for the Texarkana MSA and is a part of our College of Business. We regularly update this information on www.tmap.biz.) In today's column I write of my experiences putting this event together and what I learned from this year's conference. By all indications, this year's conference was a huge success. We sold out the event and had ticket requests for more than we could deliver. Our friends in Culinary Arts at Texarkana College maxed out the room at 298 places for our ticket holders and all the local and national media covering the event. To those who didn't get a ticket, we apologize. Get on our list for next year by calling 903.223.3020. We thank all who attended, particularly our Table Sponsors, Event Sponsors (E-Z Mart, Red River Federal Credit Union, Guaranty Bond Bank, and Wells Fargo Bank) and the TMAP Foundation Board members (Anita and Truman Foundation, Waggoner Creek Crossing, Reynolds Realty Management, and Red River Redevelopment Authority). Our keynote speaker was Dr. James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. He is particularly newsworthy these days as he rolled over onto the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as a voting member this January. The FOMC, as you may recall, sets the interest rate on the Fed Funds overnight lending rate that the Federal Reserve Banks charge to banks and is the benchmark other institutions use to set interest rates charged to borrowers. Because of the importance of his role on the FOMC, his views and opinions are important and get covered and scrutinized by the national media – more so than you might think. James Bramlett informed me that Bullard's Texarkana speech was reported on CNBC's Squawk Box. Additionally, this event attracted three national business reporters (from Bloomburg Media, Reuters News, and Dow Jones Media) who filed stories for their respective outlets, most notably The Wall Street Journal and Business Week. In fact, we provided for an audio feed to the media and you can hear Bullard's remarks in their entirety at the following web address: http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vOoloK5Q5Rnc.asf&N=video&T=Fed%3Fs+Bullard+Speech+ We'll also post this to my blog at www.EdBashaw.com. We are also appreciative of the local coverage we received of this event. Friday's main above the fold headline in the Texarkana Gazette was for their extensive coverage of Dr. Bullard's remarks and answers to questions posed by our audience. Radio station KTXK, our local NPR affiliate, led their local news segment with reporting of our Forecast Luncheon. Even yours truly was interviewed about the event for the Texarkana edition of Channel 3's newscast. While this event made national news because of Dr. Bullard's presence and remarks, I think the big news for Texarkana was made by our local panel of experts consisting of Judge James Carlow (Bowie County Judge), John Jarvis (Executive Director of Riverbend Water Resources), and Bradley Hardin (Manager of External Affairs for SWEPCO). Judge Carlow, an expert on local transportation issues, was brought in to discuss the I-69 situation and a proposed electronic transportation system linking a proposed Texarkana Port Authority with international cargo shipped into Corpus Christi and Houston. John Jarvis spoke about the importance of keeping our region's water resources at the level needed to serve current and future industries for Texarkana. Bradley Hardin informed us of the advantages we have in coal-based electricity generation, including cost advantages, for our region. What did I learn from this event? From President Bullard's presentation, I learned that there are no easy answers to overseeing the systemic risk present in our national economy at any given time. More complicated is the role of the Federal Reserve Bank in reducing and eliminating this risk to prevent the reoccurrence of a financial system meltdown that would cause another significant recession. My confidence in a legislative solution to this problem is virtually zero. Each of us should be interested in interest rates. A lead from one of the national stories generated from our Luncheon was President Bullard's response to one of our questions posed about factors the Fed would consider in their decision of when to raise interest rates. His answer reflects his position that controlling inflation will be his top priority. I inferred that he'll vote to increase interest rates in the face of overwhelming consumer expectations of expected high inflation levels. I also learned that President Bullard expects the national economy to slowly improve over the next several months. By that, I interpret he means unemployment levels around 10%, GDP growth of around 3 to 4%, and modest gains in consumer spending. Finally, I learned that over the long term Texarkana has assets that could potentially change the face of Texarkana. The water and electricity advantages combined with the electronic transport system moving freight to be broken down and then redirected from a (hopefully) new port authority to other points in the U.S. via multi-modal transportation systems would turn Texarkana into an economic powerhouse. It really could happen. Special thanks to Sonja Hubbard, CEO of E-Z Mart. She was a former member of the Board of Directors for St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank's Little Rock District. She's now a member of the Board of Directors that oversees each of the St. Louis Bank's three districts. In this capacity, she meets with Dr. Bullard almost once per month to discuss local economic issues that are discussed at Board meetings and serve to inform Dr. Bullard in his official capacity as a voting member of the FOMC. She made the actual ask for us about nine months ago. President Bullard's visit to Texarkana was timed to allow him to participate in the Little Rock District's Board meeting held on Thursday at the E-Z Mart corporate offices. Thank you Sonja! Please send your comments to Edward.Bashaw@tamut.edu or visit my blog at www.EdBashaw.com. I'll also post the audio of Jim Bullard's Texarkana presentation on my blog. Ed Bashaw is Dean and Professor of Marketing at the Texas A&M University-Texarkana College of Business.
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A Look Back at the Economic Forecast Luncheon
This article originally appeared in the Texarkana Gazette on February 28, 2010 Dr. Ed Bashaw, Dean, Texas A&M-Texarkana, College of Business I write my column on the morning after the Texarkana Market Analysis Project's third annual Economic Forecast Luncheon. (Note: the TMAP collects economic data for the Texarkana MSA and is a part of our College of Business. We regularly update this information on www.tmap.biz.) In today's column I write of my experiences putting this event together and what I learned from this year's conference. By all indications, this year's conference was a huge success. We sold out the event and had ticket requests for more than we could deliver. Our friends in Culinary Arts at Texarkana College maxed out the room at 298 places for our ticket holders and all the local and national media covering the event. To those who didn't get a ticket, we apologize. Get on our list for next year by calling 903.223.3020. We thank all who attended, particularly our Table Sponsors, Event Sponsors (E-Z Mart, Red River Federal Credit Union, Guaranty Bond Bank, and Wells Fargo Bank) and the TMAP Foundation Board members (Anita and Truman Foundation, Waggoner Creek Crossing, Reynolds Realty Management, and Red River Redevelopment Authority). Our keynote speaker was Dr. James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. He is particularly newsworthy these days as he rolled over onto the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as a voting member this January. The FOMC, as you may recall, sets the interest rate on the Fed Funds overnight lending rate that the Federal Reserve Banks charge to banks and is the benchmark other institutions use to set interest rates charged to borrowers. Because of the importance of his role on the FOMC, his views and opinions are important and get covered and scrutinized by the national media – more so than you might think. James Bramlett informed me that Bullard's Texarkana speech was reported on CNBC's Squawk Box. Additionally, this event attracted three national business reporters (from Bloomburg Media, Reuters News, and Dow Jones Media) who filed stories for their respective outlets, most notably The Wall Street Journal and Business Week. In fact, we provided for an audio feed to the media and you can hear Bullard's remarks in their entirety at the following web address: http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vOoloK5Q5Rnc.asf&N=video&T=Fed%3Fs+Bullard+Speech+ We'll also post this to my blog at www.EdBashaw.com. We are also appreciative of the local coverage we received of this event. Friday's main above the fold headline in the Texarkana Gazette was for their extensive coverage of Dr. Bullard's remarks and answers to questions posed by our audience. Radio station KTXK, our local NPR affiliate, led their local news segment with reporting of our Forecast Luncheon. Even yours truly was interviewed about the event for the Texarkana edition of Channel 3's newscast. While this event made national news because of Dr. Bullard's presence and remarks, I think the big news for Texarkana was made by our local panel of experts consisting of Judge James Carlow (Bowie County Judge), John Jarvis (Executive Director of Riverbend Water Resources), and Bradley Hardin (Manager of External Affairs for SWEPCO). Judge Carlow, an expert on local transportation issues, was brought in to discuss the I-69 situation and a proposed electronic transportation system linking a proposed Texarkana Port Authority with international cargo shipped into Corpus Christi and Houston. John Jarvis spoke about the importance of keeping our region's water resources at the level needed to serve current and future industries for Texarkana. Bradley Hardin informed us of the advantages we have in coal-based electricity generation, including cost advantages, for our region. What did I learn from this event? From President Bullard's presentation, I learned that there are no easy answers to overseeing the systemic risk present in our national economy at any given time. More complicated is the role of the Federal Reserve Bank in reducing and eliminating this risk to prevent the reoccurrence of a financial system meltdown that would cause another significant recession. My confidence in a legislative solution to this problem is virtually zero. Each of us should be interested in interest rates. A lead from one of the national stories generated from our Luncheon was President Bullard's response to one of our questions posed about factors the Fed would consider in their decision of when to raise interest rates. His answer reflects his position that controlling inflation will be his top priority. I inferred that he'll vote to increase interest rates in the face of overwhelming consumer expectations of expected high inflation levels. I also learned that President Bullard expects the national economy to slowly improve over the next several months. By that, I interpret he means unemployment levels around 10%, GDP growth of around 3 to 4%, and modest gains in consumer spending. Finally, I learned that over the long term Texarkana has assets that could potentially change the face of Texarkana. The water and electricity advantages combined with the electronic transport system moving freight to be broken down and then redirected from a (hopefully) new port authority to other points in the U.S. via multi-modal transportation systems would turn Texarkana into an economic powerhouse. It really could happen. Special thanks to Sonja Hubbard, CEO of E-Z Mart. She was a former member of the Board of Directors for St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank's Little Rock District. She's now a member of the Board of Directors that oversees each of the St. Louis Bank's three districts. In this capacity, she meets with Dr. Bullard almost once per month to discuss local economic issues that are discussed at Board meetings and serve to inform Dr. Bullard in his official capacity as a voting member of the FOMC. She made the actual ask for us about nine months ago. President Bullard's visit to Texarkana was timed to allow him to participate in the Little Rock District's Board meeting held on Thursday at the E-Z Mart corporate offices. Thank you Sonja! Please send your comments to Edward.Bashaw@tamut.edu or visit my blog at www.EdBashaw.com. I'll also post the audio of Jim Bullard's Texarkana presentation on my blog. Ed Bashaw is Dean and Professor of Marketing at the Texas A&M University-Texarkana College of Business.
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